FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Blue Submarinewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
470 picks · 589 bans
Muerta
465 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 562 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 534 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 776 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 472 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 880 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hydra 69%Blue Submarine 31%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Blue Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultBlue Submarine 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1