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BLAST Slam II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 25 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 21 game
62%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 20 games
60%

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 24 games
79%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 20 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 20 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 19 games
84%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 18 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 18 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
469 picks · 587 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
464 picks · 398 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 561 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
429 picks · 533 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 775 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 469 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 877 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total53% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Team Liquid 47%PARIVISION 53%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 22:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazormiCKe
52% · 173 games44% · 224 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNisha
54% · 266 games49% · 416 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
49% · 316 games60% · 185 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Zeus
ZeusiNSaNiA
42% · 97 games48% · 46 games
Bounty Hunter9Class
Bounty Hunter
Morphling
MorphlingBoxi
52% · 340 games48% · 321 game
PhoenixDukalis
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed42:30
Team Liquid 49%PARIVISION 51%
The model gave 51% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
52% · 92 games45% · 145 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
62% · 64 games45% · 336 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
56% · 135 games51% · 64 games
ViperNo[o]ne
Viper
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
52% · 273 games49% · 158 games
LichDukalis
Lich
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
48% · 176 games43% · 37 games
Bounty Hunter9Class
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct11:29
Team Liquid 48%PARIVISION 52%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
54% · 174 games38% · 59 games
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
52% · 139 games47% · 276 games
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
54% · 223 games60% · 148 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
48% · 151 game46% · 28 games
Spirit Breaker9Class
Spirit Breaker
Warlock
WarlockiNSaNiA
49% · 29 games46% · 205 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 53%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3