FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Apple City Gangloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 18 games
Hoodwink
JANTER · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 15 games
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
Apple City Gang
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
469 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
469 picks · 586 bans
Batrider
449 picks · 559 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 533 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 775 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 469 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 875 bans
Lion
398 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Night Pulse 91%Apple City Gang 9%
The model gave 91% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 37:09.
Game 2prediction missed26:39
Night Pulse 91%Apple City Gang 9%
The model gave 91% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 40:34.
Game 3prediction correct13:39
Night Pulse 91%Apple City Gang 9%
The model gave 91% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 27:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 91%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3