FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ASAKURA
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
young G · 7 games
Lich
VaniLLl · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
468 picks · 397 bans
Phoenix
467 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
449 picks · 556 bans
Clockwerk
429 picks · 533 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 773 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 467 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 874 bans
Lion
398 picks · 232 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Ban9PivoSamogon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:25
ASAKURA 44%Ban9PivoSamogon 56%
The model gave 56% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 46:14.
Game 2prediction missed19:22
ASAKURA 44%Ban9PivoSamogon 56%
The model gave 56% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 42:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteBan9PivoSamogon · 56%
Series resultASAKURA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2