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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ascent Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Muerta
Muerta
TK · 15 games
27%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
13%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
29%

Ascent Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 5 games
20%
Lion
Lion
TrazaM · 5 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
TrazaM · 4 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TrazaM · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
czy · 3 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 397 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
468 picks · 581 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 556 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
432 picks · 534 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 773 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 463 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
400 picks · 232 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 874 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 37%
Hero pool strength54% Spiky Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Spiky Gaming 79%Ascent Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 79%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1