European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 1:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NNande+4loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Jakiro
kyford · 17 games
Lion
Aidar · 16 games
Grimstroke
Aidar · 14 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
Dazzle
kyford · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
86 · 11 games
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
Techiessignature
Aidar · 10 games
Nande+4
Kezoften banned
Nande · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
Bane
Kidaro · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Lich
Kidaro · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Nande · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Rubick
armageddon · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
637 picks · 435 bans
Rubick
558 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
486 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 395 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 650 bans
Puck
351 picks · 1021 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 534 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 304 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Nande+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Nande+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Spirit Academy 38%Nande+4 62%
The model gave 62% on Nande+4 — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteNande+4 · 62%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1