?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
RisingRageloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Estar Backswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

RisingRage

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kiri · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kiri · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DM · 1 game
100%
Largo
Largooften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
100%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
CHAAANNN · 1 game
100%

Estar Backs

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 11 games
18%
Tiny
Tinysignature
payk · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Accel · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 4 games
25%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
636 picks · 435 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
558 picks · 313 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
486 picks · 588 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 395 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
435 picks · 649 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 1019 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 533 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 303 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% RisingRage
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:37
RisingRage 36%Estar Backs 64%
The model gave 64% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 1:00:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerDM
49% · 56 games48% · 92 games
Shadow FiendParker
Shadow Fiend
Visage
VisageHermit
57% · 3 games44% · 69 games
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Ember Spirit
Largo
LargoCHAAANNN
55% · 112 games54% · 28 games
UndyingbsK7-
Undying
Pudge
PudgeKiri
47% · 73 games47% · 9 games
OmniknightAccel
Omniknight
53% · 46 games
LionMichael
Lion
Game 2prediction correct39:22
RisingRage 36%Estar Backs 64%
The model gave 64% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 50:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyDM
47% · 389 games49% · 137 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Visage
VisageHermit
50% · 4 games48% · 30 games
ZeusS1RENM
Zeus
Silencer
SilencerCHAAANNN
49% · 145 games50% · 140 games
AxebsK7-
Axe
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKiri
49% · 218 games49% · 303 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
60% · 146 games
BaneAccel
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 77%
Series resultEstar Backs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2