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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 1:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Winter Bearloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 16 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 15 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 12 games
42%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 6 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
469 picks · 397 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
467 picks · 578 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 554 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
432 picks · 531 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 771 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 461 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
402 picks · 232 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
398 picks · 871 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Night Pulse 87%Winter Bear 13%
The model gave 87% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 87%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1