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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:1
1w Teamwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 10 games
30%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 10 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
45%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 15 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
469 picks · 397 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
467 picks · 577 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 553 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
432 picks · 530 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 771 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 460 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
402 picks · 232 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
398 picks · 871 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total89% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Nemiga Gaming 11%1w Team 89%
The model gave 89% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:59.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 89%
Series result1w Team 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1