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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 37 games
59%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 29 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 28 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 23 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 20 games
65%

Team Spirit Academy

Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 17 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 16 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 13 games
23%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
25%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 11 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
27%
Techies
Techiessignature
Aidar · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
636 picks · 435 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
557 picks · 313 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
486 picks · 588 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 393 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
435 picks · 649 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
350 picks · 1018 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 533 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 302 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 31%
Hero pool strength62% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:16
Power Rangers 78%Team Spirit Academy 22%
The model gave 78% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 53:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTA2000
52% · 190 games47% · 174 games
Underlordkae
Underlord
Zeus
Zeusnicky`cool
39% · 17 games51% · 286 games
Ember Spirit86
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeAlberkaaa
44% · 233 games51% · 162 games
RubickAidar
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorHduo
51% · 136 games57% · 205 games
Abaddonkyford
Abaddon
Snapfire
SnapfireImmersion
51% · 251 game
Game 2prediction correct32:28
Power Rangers 80%Team Spirit Academy 20%
The model gave 80% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
55% · 117 games54% · 305 games
Snapfire86
Snapfire
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
49% · 169 games48% · 238 games
Axekae
Axe
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
51% · 227 games47% · 43 games
Ogre Magikyford
Ogre Magi
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionImmersion
50% · 29 games46% · 75 games
GrimstrokeAidar
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
49% · 119 games
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 92%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2