FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 1:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Bbrothermenloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ASAKURA
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
young G · 7 games
Lich
VaniLLl · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
brothermen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
470 picks · 398 bans
Phoenix
467 picks · 575 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 553 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 529 bans
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 771 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 459 bans
Lion
403 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
398 picks · 870 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ASAKURA 78%brothermen 22%
The model gave 78% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 78%
Series resultASAKURA 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1