BLAST Slam II · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
Tusk
Whitemon · 32 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 23 games
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 25 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 25 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 20 games
Doomsignature
Ws · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
468 picks · 398 bans
Phoenix
463 picks · 568 bans
Batrider
445 picks · 550 bans
Clockwerk
426 picks · 526 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 772 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 453 bans
Lion
403 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
399 picks · 862 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:37
Tundra Esports 66%Talon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:03:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback33
LinaMikoto
Razordyrachyo
LifestealerNatsumi
Tinybzm
MarsWs
BatriderSaksa
Crystal MaidenKuku
Elder TitanWhitemon
RikiJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1