Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EZ KATKAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
EZ KATKA
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Lukas · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lefitan · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
700 picks · 513 bans
Puck
505 picks · 986 bans
Dawnbreaker
421 picks · 531 bans
Marci
391 picks · 715 bans
Snapfire
378 picks · 195 bans
Winter Wyvern
334 picks · 331 bans
Zeus
302 picks · 322 bans
Razor
291 picks · 603 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:28
11Monkeyz 56%EZ KATKA 44%
The model gave 56% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 33:08.
Game 2prediction missed32:13
11Monkeyz 56%EZ KATKA 44%
The model gave 56% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 28:21.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 56%
Series result11Monkeyz 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2