Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ФФЕРЗИloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
ФЕРЗИ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
484 picks · 453 bans
Mars
483 picks · 674 bans
Bane
458 picks · 281 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 503 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 655 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 587 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:17
11Monkeyz 67%ФЕРЗИ 33%
The model gave 67% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by ФЕРЗИ in 29:44.
Game 2prediction missed46:15
11Monkeyz 67%ФЕРЗИ 33%
The model gave 67% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by ФЕРЗИ in 37:30.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 67%
Series result11Monkeyz 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2