FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 32 games
Batridersignature
rue · 27 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 26 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
Lion
rue · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 21 game
Tinysignature
Larl · 21 game
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 25 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
Doomsignature
Ws · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
475 picks · 412 bans
Phoenix
459 picks · 563 bans
Batrider
446 picks · 550 bans
Clockwerk
429 picks · 541 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 779 bans
Tiny
413 picks · 448 bans
Lion
409 picks · 231 bans
Magnus
396 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 72%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
Team Spirit 58%Talon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYatoro
UrsaNatsumi
LycanCollapse
Queen of PainMikoto
LinaLarl
DoomWs
Monkey Kingrue
PugnaKuku
LichMiposhka
TuskJhocam
Game 2prediction correct39:25
Team Spirit 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYatoro
LycanNatsumi
PangolierLarl
SniperMikoto
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
AbaddonWs
PhoenixMiposhka
PugnaKuku
Batriderrue
ClockwerkJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 66%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2