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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Refuserwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
20%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
生死 · 9 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
CatYou · 8 games
13%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LOyd · 7 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
50%

Team Refuser

Axe
Axeoften banned
Yang · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Pyw · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
Monet · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Dy · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razor
zeal · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
BoBoKa · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
633 picks · 432 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
553 picks · 312 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 588 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 394 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
434 picks · 645 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
350 picks · 1015 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 531 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 303 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Team Refuser
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Refuser
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:39
Roar Gaming 48%Team Refuser 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Refuser — the game was taken by Team Refuser in 1:01:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
54% · 404 games49% · 67 games
NecrophosMonet
Necrophos
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendukiyo
53% · 314 games51% · 335 games
WindrangerPaparazi
Windranger
Tidehunter
Tidehunter生死
51% · 226 games46% · 248 games
DawnbreakerYang
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCatYou
54% · 461 game45% · 399 games
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
Axe
AxeLOyd
51% · 243 games45% · 599 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct17:33
Roar Gaming 47%Team Refuser 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Refuser — the game was taken by Team Refuser in 30:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendukiyo
48% · 249 games51% · 119 games
Dark SeerYang
Dark Seer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
52% · 254 games46% · 278 games
WindrangerMonet
Windranger
Axe
Axe生死
52% · 140 games52% · 135 games
ViperPaparazi
Viper
Rubick
RubickCatYou
51% · 206 games47% · 82 games
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
Spirit Breaker
Undying
UndyingLOyd
51% · 65 games50% · 300 games
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Refuser · 56%
Series resultTeam Refuser 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2