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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
bengan · 28 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fly · 25 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 23 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
48%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Supream^ · 20 games
60%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
63%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 22 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
483 picks · 418 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
456 picks · 551 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
448 picks · 556 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 551 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
425 picks · 232 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 790 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 442 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
394 picks · 830 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 68%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total76% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:29
MOUZ 35%Natus Vincere Junior 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLowskill
52% · 72 games50% · 161 game
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
51% · 103 games51% · 184 games
MagnusNiku
Magnus
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
44% · 120 games53% · 68 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
Pugna
Pugnaxsvampire
58% · 133 games57% · 3 games
RikiZayac
Riki
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
49% · 115 games44% · 127 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 2prediction correct24:31
MOUZ 36%Natus Vincere Junior 64%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLowskill
58% · 78 games47% · 95 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Night Stalker
Night StalkerForce
50% · 54 games45% · 213 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
53% · 154 games54% · 44 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
Magnus
Magnusxsvampire
57% · 158 gameslittle data
RikiZayac
Riki
Warlock
WarlockFly
48% · 28 games43% · 120 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 76%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2