FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 39 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 34 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 30 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
Team Liquid
Muerta
Boxi · 25 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Tusksignature
Boxi · 21 game
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
485 picks · 420 bans
Phoenix
456 picks · 550 bans
Batrider
448 picks · 560 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 553 bans
Lion
426 picks · 232 bans
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 790 bans
Tiny
407 picks · 442 bans
Magnus
394 picks · 827 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total58% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Team Falcons 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarMalr1ne
TinymiCKe
PangolierATF
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
EnchantressSneyking
PuckNisha
DawnbreakerSkiter
LichiNSaNiA
BatriderCr1t-
LionBoxi
Game 2prediction missed15:22
Team Falcons 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSkiter
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
BristlebackATF
TinyNisha
PangolierMalr1ne
MarsSabeRLight-
EnchantressSneyking
SlarkBoxi
BatriderCr1t-
LichiNSaNiA
Game 3prediction correct34:10
Team Falcons 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarATF
SniperNisha
LifestealerSkiter
TinymiCKe
PangolierMalr1ne
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
EnchantressSneyking
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Bounty HunterCr1t-
MuertaBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 58%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3