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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 22 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
Scofield · 17 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 14 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 32 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 28 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 26 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
490 picks · 421 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
455 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 563 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 561 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 233 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 789 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 443 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
389 picks · 823 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total73% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:39
Heroic 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYuma
50% · 38 games49% · 168 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
54% · 209 games58% · 160 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
46% · 315 games51% · 194 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
48% · 353 games48% · 322 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionScofield
52% · 346 games46% · 417 games
BatriderWhitemon
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed39:32
Heroic 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
53% · 174 games45% · 319 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusWisper
53% · 117 games44% · 117 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
Tiny4nalog
48% · 209 games44% · 223 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
65% · 35 gameslittle data
RikiSaksa
Riki
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
53% · 171 game56% · 47 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct15:39
Heroic 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuma
46% · 109 games53% · 183 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
45% · 253 games50% · 150 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
47% · 250 games52% · 168 games
Bristlebackdyrachyo
Bristleback
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
53% · 54 games63% · 90 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Lich
LichKJ
43% · 178 games53% · 253 games
ClockwerkSaksa
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 73%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3