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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 22 games
73%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 19 games
63%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 14 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hduo · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
493 picks · 425 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
455 picks · 541 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
452 picks · 559 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 567 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 234 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 787 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 439 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 818 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total52% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:35
Natus Vincere Junior 53%Night Pulse 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
52% · 426 games44% · 261 game
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Puck
PuckNiku
58% · 261 game46% · 296 games
PhoenixDavai
Phoenix
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
51% · 189 games50% · 180 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Pugna
PugnaRiddys
54% · 194 games47% · 341 game
ClockwerkdEsire
Clockwerk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
53% · 90 games44% · 82 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed22:40
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Night Pulse 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
47% · 80 games49% · 220 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerNiku
46% · 212 games65% · 56 games
Night StalkerDavai
Night Stalker
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
51% · 165 games50% · 305 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Chen
ChenZayac
53% · 142 games51% · 154 games
Monkey KingdEsire
Monkey King
Lion
LionRiddys
50% · 294 games43% · 158 games
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 52%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2