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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 26 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 13 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 13 games
38%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 28 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 26 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
493 picks · 425 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
455 picks · 539 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 559 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 567 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 234 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 787 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 439 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
387 picks · 817 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total71% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Gaimin Gladiators 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
50% · 94 games51% · 87 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
46% · 309 games57% · 58 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Axe
AxeAce
58% · 8 games54% · 329 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
51% · 188 games47% · 28 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptertOfu
51% · 184 games42% · 281 game
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct13:28
Gaimin Gladiators 34%Tundra Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerWatson
46% · 23 games47% · 161 game
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
41% · 181 game60% · 138 games
Bristlebackdyrachyo
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
37% · 87 games56% · 205 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatridertOfu
45% · 362 games68% · 148 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
46% · 176 games55% · 177 games
MagnusSaksa
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 71%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2