FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 29 games
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 23 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 38 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yatoro · 28 games
Batridersignature
rue · 27 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
487 picks · 425 bans
Phoenix
451 picks · 528 bans
Batrider
445 picks · 551 bans
Clockwerk
441 picks · 562 bans
Lion
434 picks · 232 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 781 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 434 bans
Pangolier
384 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
Talon Esports 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
TinyYatoro
DoomWs
Monkey KingLarl
InvokerMikoto
MagnusCollapse
Nyx AssassinJhocam
LichMiposhka
PugnaKuku
Lionrue
Game 2prediction missed37:28
Talon Esports 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackNatsumi
SpectreYatoro
SniperMikoto
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
DoomWs
Dragon KnightLarl
RikiJhocam
ZeusMiposhka
LichKuku
Batriderrue
Game 3prediction correct15:23
Talon Esports 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherWs
MorphlingYatoro
SniperMikoto
Primal BeastCollapse
BristlebackNatsumi
TinyLarl
LichKuku
Zeusrue
ClockwerkJhocam
Elder TitanMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 66%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3