FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 29 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
Lionsignature
Scofield · 17 games
Muerta
Scofield · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 38 games
Batridersignature
rue · 27 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 27 games
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
484 picks · 420 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 537 bans
Phoenix
442 picks · 521 bans
Clockwerk
435 picks · 564 bans
Lion
431 picks · 231 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 771 bans
Pangolier
381 picks · 580 bans
Tiny
379 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:19
Heroic 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 49:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterWisper
Dragon KnightYatoro
Monkey King4nalog
LinaLarl
SpectreYuma
MarsCollapse
Dark WillowScofield
Shadow DemonMiposhka
LichKJ
Muertarue
Game 2prediction missed38:21
Heroic 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerYuma
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Earthshaker4nalog
EnigmaCollapse
MagnusWisper
Storm SpiritLarl
ClockwerkScofield
LichMiposhka
PhoenixKJ
Lionrue
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2