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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
69%
Lion
Lionsignature
Scofield · 17 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 16 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
53%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 38 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 27 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 27 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
77%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 19 games
79%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 420 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 537 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 521 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 564 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 231 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 771 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 580 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
379 picks · 425 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:19
Heroic 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 49:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
55% · 251 game46% · 221 game
Dragon KnightYatoro
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey King4nalog
54% · 198 games44% · 103 games
LinaLarl
Lina
Spectre
SpectreYuma
52% · 41 game46% · 150 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
49% · 301 game52% · 219 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Lich
LichKJ
49% · 136 games52% · 234 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed38:21
Heroic 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYuma
41% · 34 games42% · 75 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Earthshaker
Earthshaker4nalog
56% · 71 game56% · 134 games
EnigmaCollapse
Enigma
Magnus
MagnusWisper
51% · 194 games47% · 203 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
50% · 282 games53% · 157 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
50% · 246 games48% · 258 games
Lionrue
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2