?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 16 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 15 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 14 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 12 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 12 games
33%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 25 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 13 games
62%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
486 picks · 418 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 538 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
441 picks · 519 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 566 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 232 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 768 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
380 picks · 583 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 420 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total66% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Aurora Gaming 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPalos
42% · 53 games47% · 216 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAbed
47% · 118 games48% · 161 game
MagnusAce
Magnus
Night Stalker
Night StalkerJabz
56% · 64 games45% · 46 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQ
57% · 260 games57% · 138 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Lich
LichOli
45% · 110 games53% · 44 games
Shadow ShamantOfu
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 66%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1