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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO1
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 1:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 28 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 23 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 22 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
79%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 17 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 28 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 26 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
485 picks · 418 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
439 picks · 520 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
437 picks · 232 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 567 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 766 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 419 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 585 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:4
Talon Esports 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 21:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
51% · 232 games49% · 54 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
50% · 146 games59% · 211 games
Bristleback33
Bristleback
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWs
40% · 124 games50% · 246 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Pugna
PugnaKuku
55% · 158 games44% · 151 game
LichWhitemon
Lich
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
46% · 275 games54% · 273 games
MagnusSaksa
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1