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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 11 games
27%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 9 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 6 games
17%
Muerta
Muerta
Shishak · 6 games
17%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 26 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 25 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 22 games
41%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 19 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 18 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 16 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
483 picks · 418 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
437 picks · 520 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 232 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 567 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 766 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 419 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 585 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:19
Nemiga Gaming 38%Zero Tenacity 62%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinbashka
47% · 105 games49% · 388 games
Dragon KnightRetsu
Dragon Knight
Tiny
Tinyспортик
55% · 524 games51% · 279 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterCovisnine
47% · 98 games40% · 429 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Phoenix
Phoenixmonodrama
50% · 438 games56% · 167 games
PugnaLeBronDota
Pugna
Lion
LionShishak
53% · 397 games50% · 299 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct9:25
Nemiga Gaming 37%Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinbashka
46% · 82 games50% · 260 games
Dragon KnightRetsu
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingCovisnine
51% · 222 games41% · 293 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Earthshaker
Earthshakerспортик
60% · 120 games58% · 165 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Phoenix
Phoenixmonodrama
48% · 414 games53% · 173 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Techies
TechiesShishak
39% · 171 game54% · 118 games
PugnaLeBronDota
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 75%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2