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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
AVULUSloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 39 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 34 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 29 games
97%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
64%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 43 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 38 games
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 38 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 31 game
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 30 games
77%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 26 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
483 picks · 417 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
443 picks · 541 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
437 picks · 519 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
436 picks · 567 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 232 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 766 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 418 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 588 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:28
Team Falcons 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:01:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkiter
50% · 58 games43% · 35 games
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
Wraith King
Doom
DoomATF
45% · 195 games51% · 113 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
51% · 329 games49% · 152 games
Earth SpiritStormstormer
Earth Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
56% · 53 games50% · 408 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
49% · 223 games56% · 150 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 74%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1