European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Batridersignature
Lelis · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 4 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
Lich
Se · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
423 · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 3 games
Quantum Team
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 11 games
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Fezor · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 8 games
Dark Willow
Somnia · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
483 picks · 417 bans
Batrider
439 picks · 541 bans
Clockwerk
436 picks · 567 bans
Lion
436 picks · 231 bans
Phoenix
436 picks · 517 bans
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 764 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 587 bans
Tiny
374 picks · 418 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 48%
Hero pool strength64% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:25
Into The Breach 72%Quantum Team 28%
The model gave 72% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan423
Templar Assassinbashka
BristlebackMinD_ContRoL
Earth Spiritспортик
Monkey KingCopy
Crystal MaidenFezor
LichSe
Batriderkolya_kaBAN68
Shadow DemonLelis
Game 2prediction correct23:10
Into The Breach 71%Quantum Team 29%
The model gave 71% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 25:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade423
Troll Warlordbashka
Ember SpiritCopy
Tinyспортик
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Dark Willowkolya_kaBAN68
BatriderLelis
PhoenixFezor
LichSe
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 83%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2