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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 28 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 26 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
79%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 15 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
64%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
483 picks · 417 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
439 picks · 541 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
436 picks · 567 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 231 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
436 picks · 517 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 764 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 587 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 418 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Tundra Esports 67%Shopify Rebellion 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
48% · 49 games50% · 219 games
MagnusTimado
Magnus
Bristleback
Bristleback33
54% · 105 games55% · 247 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Tiny
Tinybzm
49% · 370 games51% · 62 games
Visagemangekyou
Visage
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
47% · 422 games56% · 175 games
WeaverHellscream
Weaver
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
38% · 29 games49% · 272 games
Crystal MaidenSkem
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1