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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 37 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 24 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 21 game
76%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 20 games
45%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 15 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 13 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hduo · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
JANTER · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
479 picks · 419 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 231 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 540 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 566 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
433 picks · 510 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 757 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 584 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
369 picks · 422 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total78% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:58
Passion UA 36%Night Pulse 64%
The model gave 64% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 1:00:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
56% · 76 games46% · 363 games
Dragon KnightKami
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
53% · 195 games51% · 243 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Invoker
Invokerniche
49% · 157 games52% · 62 games
Night StalkerDavai
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
52% · 298 games51% · 258 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Batrider
Batriderkreker
45% · 331 game49% · 131 game
LichKidaro
Lich
Game 2prediction correct17:28
Passion UA 32%Night Pulse 68%
The model gave 68% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBatyuk
49% · 43 games56% · 147 games
BristlebackKami
Bristleback
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritniche
52% · 165 games51% · 81 game
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallize
44% · 65 games46% · 235 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaFernans
47% · 179 games49% · 81 game
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Lich
Lichkreker
56% · 96 games38% · 4 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 78%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2