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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
LFGwin 2:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LFG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
flacko · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nizam` · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Astral · 4 games
75%
Lich
Lich
flacko · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nizam` · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 3 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
bengan · 27 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 26 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 26 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 24 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 419 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
437 picks · 535 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 566 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 231 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 508 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 754 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 586 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
368 picks · 420 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
LFG 34%MOUZ 66%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinyowaai
46% · 57 games44% · 190 games
TerrorbladeLowskill
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNorma
50% · 292 games48% · 209 games
MagnusSupream^
Magnus
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNizam`
58% · 207 games54% · 223 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaAstral
48% · 268 games49% · 294 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Phoenix
Phoenixflacko
47% · 285 games55% · 193 games
PugnaFly
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed47:37
LFG 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by LFG in 1:01:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidyowaai
54% · 51 game46% · 176 games
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusNorma
51% · 156 games55% · 243 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNizam`
43% · 288 games57% · 64 games
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Phantom Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
48% · 189 games49% · 31 game
WarlockFly
Warlock
Pugna
Pugnaflacko
56% · 119 games46% · 289 games
Tuskxsvampire
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed26:20
LFG 32%MOUZ 68%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by LFG in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
49% · 91 game50% · 138 games
LinaSupream^
Lina
Doom
DoomNorma
54% · 181 game53% · 217 games
BristlebackLowskill
Bristleback
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNizam`
52% · 144 games52% · 51 game
Night StalkerForce
Night Stalker
Pugna
PugnaAstral
47% · 139 games45% · 59 games
UndyingFly
Undying
Tusk
Tuskflacko
48% · 167 games48% · 257 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 79%
Series resultLFG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3