European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 1:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Flame Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 9 games
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 7 games
Windranger
Ponlo · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 6 games
Flame Esports
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 5 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 3 games
Windranger
legacy · 3 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 2 games
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
636 picks · 431 bans
Rubick
550 picks · 311 bans
Phoenix
485 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
467 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
434 picks · 645 bans
Puck
353 picks · 1018 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
341 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Flame Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ilbirs eSports 72%Flame Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Game 2prediction missed51:52
Ilbirs eSports 60%Flame Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 1:05:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinychempik
SlarkDeles
TidehunterNefrit
Undyingemptiness
Ember Spiritniche
RubickJeezy
ClockwerkPonlo
LichStoic
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
Game 3prediction missed24:33
Ilbirs eSports 61%Flame Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viperniche
Faceless VoidDeles
Tinychempik
Pangolieremptiness
DoomNefrit
PhoenixStoic
Arc WardenPonlo
RubickJeezy
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 72%
Series resultFlame Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3