?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Türkiyeloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ASAKURAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Türkiye

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 15 games
53%
Lich
Lich
Stoic · 14 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 10 games
70%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
G.T.I · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 7 games
43%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Lich
Lichsignature
VaniLLl · 6 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 5 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 416 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
436 picks · 566 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
434 picks · 534 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 229 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 504 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 749 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 586 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
364 picks · 417 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:31
Team Türkiye 38%ASAKURA 62%
The model gave 62% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 46:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawG.T.I
50% · 248 games49% · 250 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Batrider
Batridersunset
48% · 418 games48% · 162 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Tusk
TuskStoic
51% · 278 games56% · 93 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
48% · 130 games
Leshracslimeyao
Leshrac
50% · 309 games
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct17:43
Team Türkiye 40%ASAKURA 60%
The model gave 60% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastG.T.I
56% · 263 games47% · 254 games
Gyrocopter7jesu
Gyrocopter
Rubick
Rubicksunset
51% · 414 games49% · 343 games
Tinyyoung G
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkStoic
49% · 469 games44% · 224 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
51% · 186 games
Lionslimeyao
Lion
50% · 139 games
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct10:31
Team Türkiye 35%ASAKURA 65%
The model gave 65% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 20:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyG.T.I
47% · 366 games51% · 239 games
Gyrocopter7jesu
Gyrocopter
Pudge
PudgeStoic
47% · 32 games52% · 56 games
Earthshakeryoung G
Earthshaker
Muerta
Muertasunset
46% · 295 games59% · 109 games
BristlebackInfernal
Bristleback
54% · 198 games
Lionslimeyao
Lion
51% · 91 game
Ogre MagiVaniLLl
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 71%
Series resultASAKURA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3