European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 4 games
Lich
Se · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
423 · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 2 games
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 23 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 23 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 21 game
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
Lion
Pablo · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 17 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
481 picks · 417 bans
Clockwerk
436 picks · 571 bans
Lion
434 picks · 229 bans
Batrider
431 picks · 534 bans
Phoenix
423 picks · 501 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 747 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 591 bans
Tiny
361 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:21
Into The Breach 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother423
GyrocopterRetsu
Earth SpiritCopy
DawnbreakerNefrit
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
PuckStojkov
BatriderLelis
RubickPablo
ChenSe
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Into The Breach 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer423
GyrocopterRetsu
PangolierCopy
Queen of PainStojkov
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
Primal BeastNefrit
ChenSe
TuskPablo
BatriderLelis
PhoenixLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 62%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2