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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 37 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 24 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 21 game
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 19 games
53%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
43%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 22 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
52%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 16 games
19%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
479 picks · 417 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
436 picks · 569 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
433 picks · 229 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 534 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
423 picks · 500 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 747 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 589 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
360 picks · 418 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:4
Passion UA 50%One Move 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 24:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkCrystallize
51% · 91 game47% · 284 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinyniche
50% · 487 games51% · 315 games
MorphlingWoE
Morphling
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeBatyuk
42% · 240 games58% · 165 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterkreker
53% · 448 games51% · 280 games
Enchantressso bad
Enchantress
Muerta
MuertaFernans
51% · 222 games46% · 444 games
Batridernot me
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed34:26
Passion UA 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinCrystallize
41% · 48 games48% · 53 games
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
48% · 205 games49% · 199 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritniche
50% · 190 games51% · 91 game
EarthshakerDifference
Earthshaker
Muerta
MuertaFernans
50% · 213 games52% · 278 games
Enchantressso bad
Enchantress
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterkreker
49% · 243 games59% · 278 games
Lionnot me
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 52%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2