European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBLesnaya Bratvaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 3 games
Lich
Se · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
423 · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
Se · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 1 game
Dark Willow
Lelis · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
423 · 1 game
Lesnaya Bratva
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
478 picks · 415 bans
Clockwerk
433 picks · 570 bans
Lion
431 picks · 229 bans
Batrider
427 picks · 536 bans
Phoenix
420 picks · 497 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 739 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
359 picks · 413 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:45
Into The Breach 79%Lesnaya Bratva 21%
The model gave 79% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Lesnaya Bratva in 49:36.
Game 2prediction correct23:32
Into The Breach 79%Lesnaya Bratva 21%
The model gave 79% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 37:48.
Game 3prediction correct45:25
Into The Breach 79%Lesnaya Bratva 21%
The model gave 79% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 43:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 79%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3