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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamwin 2:0
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quantum Team

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 10 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 6 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 6 games
17%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 6 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 5 games
80%
Lich
Lich
so bad · 5 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
479 picks · 416 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 572 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 228 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 539 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 735 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
418 picks · 498 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 588 bans
45%
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 413 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:21
Quantum Team 29%ASAKURA 71%
The model gave 71% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 52:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbashka
43% · 219 games46% · 133 games
Linayoung G
Lina
Earthshaker
Earthshakerспортик
48% · 64 games54% · 56 games
Drow Ranger7jesu
Drow Ranger
Lion
Lionkolya_kaBAN68
50% · 179 games55% · 125 games
EnigmaInfernal
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixFezor
48% · 179 games54% · 115 games
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Elder Titan
56% · 212 games
Magnusslimeyao
Magnus
Game 2prediction missed42:20
Quantum Team 27%ASAKURA 73%
The model gave 73% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinbashka
44% · 46 games70% · 41 game
LycanInfernal
Lycan
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritспортик
45% · 102 games49% · 111 games
Terrorblade7jesu
Terrorblade
Dark Willow
Dark Willowkolya_kaBAN68
43% · 126 games51% · 106 games
Linayoung G
Lina
Batrider
BatriderFezor
45% · 201 game61% · 115 games
Nyx Assassinslimeyao
Nyx Assassin
53% · 102 games
LichVaniLLl
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 82%
Series resultQuantum Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2