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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 25 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 24 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 23 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 20 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 20 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 19 games
47%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 11 games
27%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 6 games
17%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shishak · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 417 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 576 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 228 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 540 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 733 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
415 picks · 495 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 589 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 928 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 35%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
MOUZ 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLowskill
36% · 45 games50% · 158 games
Templar Assassinbashka
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
43% · 137 games53% · 170 games
Invokerспортик
Invoker
Enigma
EnigmaForce
54% · 117 games57% · 124 games
DawnbreakerCovisnine
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
44% · 252 games58% · 226 games
MuertaShishak
Muerta
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
45% · 194 games59% · 67 games
Zeusmonodrama
Zeus
Game 2prediction missed43:44
MOUZ 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:19:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLowskill
46% · 271 game40% · 53 games
Phantom Assassinbashka
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
48% · 174 games56% · 296 games
Puckспортик
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
49% · 104 games51% · 439 games
TinyCovisnine
Tiny
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
54% · 194 games51% · 117 games
GrimstrokeShishak
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
53% · 272 games48% · 110 games
Lichmonodrama
Lich
Game 3prediction missed40:59
MOUZ 69%Nemiga Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:03:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerLowskill
56% · 29 games42% · 40 games
Phantom Assassinbashka
Phantom Assassin
Invoker
InvokerSupream^
54% · 180 games46% · 178 games
Earth Spiritспортик
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
55% · 229 games46% · 79 games
EarthshakerCovisnine
Earthshaker
Magnus
MagnusForce
55% · 160 games43% · 238 games
Phoenixmonodrama
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaFly
55% · 167 games47% · 230 games
MuertaShishak
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 81%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3