European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ASAKURAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
Lion
Delight · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
ASAKURA
Lion
slimeyao · 8 games
Magnussignature
Infernal · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
young G · 5 games
Lich
so bad · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
Muerta
slimeyao · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
young G · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
477 picks · 417 bans
Clockwerk
434 picks · 574 bans
Lion
430 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
424 picks · 540 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 732 bans
Phoenix
413 picks · 495 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 587 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 928 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:40
Winter Bear 46%ASAKURA 54%
The model gave 54% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PhoenixDelight
Bloodseeker7jesu
62% · 64 games
Puckyoung G
66% · 25 games
UnderlordInfernal
57% · 42 games
LichVaniLLl
51% · 80 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Game 2prediction missed40:38
Winter Bear 44%ASAKURA 56%
The model gave 56% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 51:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nyx AssassinDelight
Gyrocopter7jesu
47% · 32 games
Ember Spirityoung G
50% · 6 games
TidehunterInfernal
47% · 34 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
43% · 38 games
Lionslimeyao
Game 3prediction correct31:42
Winter Bear 46%ASAKURA 54%
The model gave 54% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 43:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nyx AssassinDelight
Gyrocopter7jesu
44% · 51 game
Tinyyoung G
50% · 6 games
TidehunterInfernal
44% · 5 games
Leshracslimeyao
36% · 38 games
TuskVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 63%
Series resultASAKURA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3