European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Türkiyeloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winter Bearwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Türkiye
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 13 games
Lich
Stoic · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
Timbersawsignature
G.T.I · 8 games
Tuskoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Lion
Delight · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
480 picks · 416 bans
Clockwerk
435 picks · 574 bans
Lion
429 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 540 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 733 bans
Phoenix
412 picks · 493 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 589 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 931 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:39
Team Türkiye 49%Winter Bear 51%
The model gave 51% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinG.T.I
Nyx AssassinDelight
GyrocopterStoic
Game 2prediction missed30:6
Team Türkiye 46%Winter Bear 54%
The model gave 54% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyG.T.I
LionDelight
Crystal MaidenStoic
Game 3prediction correct3:43
Team Türkiye 46%Winter Bear 54%
The model gave 54% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 22:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyG.T.I
PhoenixDelight
LichStoic
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 50%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3