European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs predictionLLFGloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LFG
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
flacko · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Nizam` · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 1 game
Dark Willow
Astral · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nizam` · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 1 game
MOUZ
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 24 games
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
482 picks · 415 bans
Clockwerk
444 picks · 575 bans
Lion
427 picks · 229 bans
Batrider
424 picks · 538 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 728 bans
Phoenix
411 picks · 485 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 592 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 941 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:27
LFG 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinyowaai
LinaSupream^
DoomNorma
BloodseekerLowskill
Earth SpiritNizam`
TinyForce
Shadow DemonAstral
PhoenixFly
Lichflacko
Tuskxsvampire
Game 2prediction correct6:28
LFG 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 20:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinyowaai
GyrocopterLowskill
Monkey KingNizam`
Ember SpiritSupream^
MarsNorma
BristlebackForce
MuertaAstral
PhoenixFly
Clockwerkflacko
Dark Willowxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 79%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2