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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 22 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 18 games
50%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 41 game
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 38 games
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 37 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 29 games
79%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Xibbe · 25 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 415 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 578 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
425 picks · 229 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 536 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 728 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
410 picks · 484 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 594 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
359 picks · 939 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total72% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:26
Natus Vincere Junior 36%AVULUS 64%
The model gave 64% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
49% · 333 games50% · 94 games
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
Broodmother
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
57% · 173 games50% · 223 games
Earth SpiritStormstormer
Earth Spirit
Invoker
InvokerNiku
50% · 206 games47% · 169 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
53% · 319 games44% · 317 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Lich
LichRiddys
51% · 113 games50% · 341 game
LionEkki
Lion
Game 2prediction missed27:11
Natus Vincere Junior 37%AVULUS 63%
The model gave 63% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
51% · 217 games60% · 172 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
50% · 281 game43% · 153 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Invoker
InvokerNiku
49% · 219 games51% · 341 game
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
49% · 95 games52% · 169 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Lion
LionRiddys
47% · 328 games51% · 305 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2