ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportsloss 1:3series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Nigma Galaxywin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chimera Esports
Muertasignature
OneJey · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 11 games
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 11 games
Pugnasignature
Panto · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 9 games
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 9 games
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 21 game
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 21 game
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 19 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
486 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
424 picks · 536 bans
Lion
424 picks · 229 bans
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 724 bans
Phoenix
406 picks · 483 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 594 bans
Beastmaster
360 picks · 940 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:37
Chimera Esports 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckLorenof
GyrocopterMiracle-
LifestealerTA2000
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Night StalkerDaxak
MarsNo!ob
Nyx AssassinOneJey
Bounty HunterOmaR
EnchantressPanto
ClockwerkGH
Game 2prediction missed15:31
Chimera Esports 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritTA2000
BristlebackMiracle-
Storm SpiritLorenof
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Night StalkerDaxak
Vengeful SpiritNo!ob
BatriderOneJey
PhoenixGH
PugnaPanto
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 3prediction correct32:25
Chimera Esports 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 53:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTA2000
EarthshakerSumaiL
TimbersawLorenof
Night StalkerMiracle-
LycanDaxak
MagnusNo!ob
GrimstrokeOneJey
BatriderGH
PhoenixPanto
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 4prediction missed22:32
Chimera Esports 53%Nigma Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 49:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanDaxak
BloodseekerMiracle-
Templar AssassinTA2000
Ember SpiritSumaiL
EarthshakerLorenof
MagnusNo!ob
PhoenixPanto
Nyx AssassinOmaR
LionOneJey
IoGH
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4