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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 12 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
42%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
YamSun · 9 games
78%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 5 games
80%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 5 games
80%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
485 picks · 410 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 583 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 532 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
421 picks · 229 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 716 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
405 picks · 476 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 599 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 941 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:21
Shopify Rebellion 62%Wildcard Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreTimado
49% · 42 games53% · 88 games
EarthshakerRCY
Earthshaker
Beastmaster
Beastmastermangekyou
47% · 142 games53% · 70 games
Phantom AssassinYamSun
Phantom Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
53% · 118 games45% · 49 games
Night StalkerFayde
Night Stalker
Weaver
WeaverHellscream
53% · 50 games49% · 75 games
LichSpeeed
Lich
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
46% · 83 games52% · 153 games
MuertaBignum
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct33:23
Shopify Rebellion 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
46% · 297 games48% · 195 games
MedusaYamSun
Medusa
Doom
Doommangekyou
55% · 313 games45% · 345 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
49% · 167 games47% · 176 games
MagnusFayde
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHellscream
61% · 128 games46% · 223 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Zeus
ZeusSkem
57% · 100 games49% · 66 games
UndyingSpeeed
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2