ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yoru Ryodanwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RBRed Bullsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yoru Ryodan
Lion
Ezekiel · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Grimstroke
Ezekiel · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Iooften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Red Bulls
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
485 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 531 bans
Lion
421 picks · 229 bans
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 714 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 474 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 599 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 938 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Red Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Red Bulls
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:45
Yoru Ryodan 39%Red Bulls 61%
The model gave 61% on Red Bulls — the game was taken by Yoru Ryodan in 51:08.
Game 2prediction correct20:33
Yoru Ryodan 39%Red Bulls 61%
The model gave 61% on Red Bulls — the game was taken by Red Bulls in 43:36.
Game 3prediction missed24:34
Yoru Ryodan 39%Red Bulls 61%
The model gave 61% on Red Bulls — the game was taken by Yoru Ryodan in 44:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteRed Bulls · 61%
Series resultYoru Ryodan 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3