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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 21 game
76%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 18 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 27 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
33 · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 409 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
445 picks · 580 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 528 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
420 picks · 228 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 712 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
405 picks · 472 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 597 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 935 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total88% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Natus Vincere Junior 28%Tundra Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
55% · 174 games49% · 69 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyNiku
50% · 254 games48% · 178 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
57% · 136 games50% · 254 games
Doom33
Doom
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
55% · 31 game49% · 170 games
PugnaWhitemon
Pugna
Lich
LichRiddys
41% · 81 game44% · 5 games
RikiSaksa
Riki
Game 2prediction correct22:46
Natus Vincere Junior 28%Tundra Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
49% · 67 games55% · 56 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckNiku
49% · 193 games43% · 232 games
Doom33
Doom
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
54% · 46 games55% · 114 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRiddys
48% · 216 games50% · 331 game
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderZayac
53% · 291 game46% · 80 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 88%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2