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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chimera Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 21 game
38%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 21 game
81%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 18 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 15 games
73%

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 11 games
91%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Panto · 10 games
70%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Lorenof · 9 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 409 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 581 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 526 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
419 picks · 230 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 709 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
404 picks · 470 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 595 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
357 picks · 934 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 76%
Hero pool strength56% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
Nigma Galaxy 47%Chimera Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
47% · 200 games54% · 124 games
LifestealerTA2000
Lifestealer
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
50% · 228 games50% · 108 games
Monkey KingLorenof
Monkey King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNo!ob
59% · 56 games47% · 105 games
DawnbreakerDaxak
Dawnbreaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenGH
43% · 249 games50% · 201 game
LionOneJey
Lion
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
51% · 20 games55% · 215 games
Shadow DemonPanto
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct24:37
Nigma Galaxy 44%Chimera Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
51% · 116 games45% · 198 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
48% · 156 games52% · 211 games
Earth SpiritLorenof
Earth Spirit
Doom
DoomNo!ob
49% · 204 games56% · 223 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
48% · 203 games53% · 98 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGH
55% · 170 games42% · 119 games
LichPanto
Lich
Game 3prediction correct4:29
Nigma Galaxy 49%Chimera Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMiracle-
54% · 149 games50% · 135 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
58% · 42 games36% · 105 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingSumaiL
56% · 132 games60% · 27 games
Night StalkerDaxak
Night Stalker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
45% · 58 games48% · 28 games
OraclePanto
Oracle
Jakiro
JakiroOmaR
56% · 39 games45% · 125 games
MuertaOneJey
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 53%
Series resultChimera Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3