ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BBadRexonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
BadRexon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
484 picks · 409 bans
Clockwerk
447 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 526 bans
Lion
419 picks · 230 bans
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 709 bans
Phoenix
404 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 595 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 934 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:6
Winter Bear 57%BadRexon 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 23:36.
Game 2prediction correct37:46
Winter Bear 57%BadRexon 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 43:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 57%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2