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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lesnaya Bratvaloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Türkiyewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lesnaya Bratva

No games played over 6 months.

Team Türkiye

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 12 games
58%
Lich
Lich
Stoic · 11 games
27%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 8 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 408 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 580 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 526 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
419 picks · 230 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 707 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
404 picks · 468 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 595 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
357 picks · 934 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Türkiye
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:28
Lesnaya Bratva 42%Team Türkiye 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 40:39.
Game 2prediction missed37:34
Lesnaya Bratva 42%Team Türkiye 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Lesnaya Bratva in 41:05.
Game 3prediction correct29:34
Lesnaya Bratva 42%Team Türkiye 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 39:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Türkiye · 58%
Series resultTeam Türkiye 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3