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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Hduo · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
JANTER · 9 games
33%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
JANTER · 9 games
44%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 8 games
38%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokersignature
xn丶e · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 408 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
448 picks · 582 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 527 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
417 picks · 230 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 702 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
404 picks · 466 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 594 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 933 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:35
Night Pulse 50%Team Secret 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:06:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKami
43% · 246 games29% · 3 games
NecrophosParker
Necrophos
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
43% · 190 games53% · 192 games
Sniperxn丶e
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
40% · 271 game54% · 271 game
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
46% · 195 games62% · 217 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
49% · 214 games55% · 433 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Game 2prediction correct27:12
Night Pulse 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKami
44% · 286 games44% · 54 games
Drow RangerParker
Drow Ranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritWorick
51% · 183 games46% · 227 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
58% · 135 games44% · 260 games
Tinyxn丶e
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
57% · 32 games48% · 160 games
MuertaThiolicor
Muerta
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
59% · 144 games52% · 79 games
Elder TitanPuppey
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct31:22
Night Pulse 51%Team Secret 49%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
49% · 110 games52% · 196 games
Templar Assassinxn丶e
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
40% · 284 games61% · 197 games
WeaverParker
Weaver
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
41% · 160 games44% · 56 games
VisageMikSa`
Visage
Tusk
TuskdEsire
40% · 132 games64% · 131 game
Elder TitanPuppey
Elder Titan
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
39% · 17 games63% · 123 games
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 58%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3